In 2019, India was the third-largest consumer of oil, accounting for ~5.4% of the global oil consumption. Oil and gas jointly accounted for 36.37% of the country’s overall energy mix in 2019. Oil consumption in India stood at 5,270.73 thousand barrels per day in 2019, and is projected to reach 5,490.92 thousand barrels by 2025, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.25% during the 2020-2025 period.
As of 2019, there were 4.66 Bn barrels of proven oil reserves and 1.33 Tn cubic meters of proven natural gas reserve in India. In 2019, India accounted for ~0.9% of the global oil production and ~0.7% of the global natural gas production. The production of oil and natural gas fell between 2018 and 2019. Low productivity of aging oilfields, coupled with the declining trend of prices led to the decline in production volume in 2019. The oil and gas production is estimated to further plummet in 2020 in wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unavailability of workers, movement restriction, low offtake from key consumers, and closure of offshore gas fields are expected to impact the production in 2020. However, the production of natural gas is anticipated to grow over the forecast period, owing to the Indian government’s ambition to reduce import dependency.
A rapidly growing population, industrialization, and urbanization contributed to the steady growth of oil and natural gas consumption. India is highly reliant on imports to meet its demand for oil and gas – ~80% of oil demand and ~50% of natural gas demand are met through imports. In 2020, mainly in the second quarter of CY 2020, stringent lockdown measures imposed on account of the pandemic, impacted the demand for oil and gas in the transportation and industrial sectors. The domestic demand is anticipated to recover from the fourth quarter of CY 2020. The consumption of natural gas is likely to surge over the forecast period, owing to the government’s goal to increase the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix.
The steady increase in population, coupled with the rising income level has amplified the rate of urbanization in the country, which in turn, is fostering the growth of the oil and gas industry in India. Improved infrastructure and ease of doing business have been encouraging the participation of international players, such as BP plc, Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), and Total SA.
The rapid growth of the Indian transportation industry has also bolstered the demand for oil and gas industry in India. Light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles are the leading consumers of oil and gas, followed by aircraft, marine, and rail. Furthermore, the advancement of drilling techniques, equipment, and technology is expected to augment the growth of the Indian oil and gas industry. The application of cutting-edge oil-producing technologies is likely to help in exploring novel unconventional sources rather than relying on depleting conventional sources. However, factors like the declining trend in domestic production, heavy reliance on import, dominance of state-owned companies, and limited infrastructure investments are impeding market growth.
Impact of COVID-19:
The oil and gas industry has been experiencing an unpredicted crisis on account of the two-pronged effect of the international price war and pandemic, which is likely to mark a substantial impact on the domestic market, both in the short and long term. The lockdown led to a sharp dip in mobility, transportation, and industrial activities, resulting in a slump in oil and consumption. Low demand for oil, gas, and refined products is anticipated to create a supply-demand imbalance and a consequent price fall in the near future.
In the long run, the market is predicted to gain momentum; however, an oversupply is likely to be predominant in the global market. Workers laid off as an instantaneous effect of the pandemic, is likely to give rise to labor shortage during the revival phase. The focus of the industry is expected to shift towards low-cost and short-cycle sources over the forecast period. Expansion of innovative segments like shale oil and shale gas, adoption of new business models, and market consolidation are projected to be the long-term trends in the market.
• Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
• Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited
• Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
• Indian Oil Corporation Limited
• Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
• Numaligarh Refinery Limited
• Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited
• Oil India Limited
• Reliance Industries Limited
• Nayara Energy Limited Private