Research Report on Paddy and Rice Import in China, 2019-2023

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In 2017, China Customs handled 57 cases of rice smuggling that involved 394,400 tons of rice. The total value of the involved rice exceeded USD 200 million. It is estimated that at least 2 million tons of rice worth more than USD 1 billion are smuggled to China every year.

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Description

Description
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of paddy and rice. Once a net exporter of paddy and rice, China became a net rice importer in 2011, and the world’s largest rice importer in 2012. In 2017, it imported 4.03 million tons of paddy and rice. The reasons why China shifted from a traditional rice exporter into the world’s largest rice importer include: (1) Farming brings little income in China. With the growing economy and rising urbanization level, many rural laborers flow to cities and towns instead of being engaged in agriculture, which leads to sluggish growth in agricultural output; and (2) the prices of domestically grown rice are much higher than those of imported rice. China’s rice imports are mainly mid-and low-end rice from Vietnam and Thailand. Their prices are only 80% of those of domestically grown rice at the same quality levels or lower.
The Chinese government implements tariff rate quota administration for paddy and rice. The annual quota for 2012 to 2019 is 5.32 million tons. If an importer can obtain the quota, it will enjoy very low import tariffs. However, many private grain traders and food processing enterprises are ineligible for the quota. To reduce costs, they purchase smuggled rice. It is reported that smuggled rice mainly comes from Thailand and Burma via Yunnan and Guangxi, with Nanning city of Guangxi seeing the most rampant rice smuggling in China. In 2017, China Customs handled 57 cases of rice smuggling that involved 394,400 tons of rice. The total value of the involved rice exceeded USD 200 million. It is estimated that at least 2 million tons of rice worth more than USD 1 billion are smuggled to China every year.
As China’s net annual population growth exceeds10 million, the demand for paddy and rice will keep growing in the coming years. While the profitability of rice planting is decreasing as the prices of pesticides, chemical fertilizers, energy and other production factors keep rising. A rural laborer can get a monthly pay of CNY 3,000 (USD 435) or more from an urban job. If he/she works as a farmer in his/her hometown, he/she can hardly earn USD 300 per month, let alone that farming presents heavier workloads. It is expected that as more rural laborers migrate to cities, the number of farmers will keep declining, and the production of main agricultural products including paddy will see slow growth or even negative growth in the coming years. In this context, China will have to import more paddy and rice.
With about 125.84 million tons of rice yields, China’s reliance on rice imports was about 3.2% in 2017. Considering the smuggled rice, the reliance on foreign rice actually exceeded 5%. It is expected that more foreign paddy and rice will enter China in the coming years. And intensifying smuggling may drag down the import volume, which presents huge opportunities to global rice exporters.

Topics Covered:
– Major factors influencing paddy and rice import in China
– Analysis on supply for and demand of paddy and rice in China
– Import volumes of paddy and rice in China
– Import prices of rice in China
– Major sources of China’s rice imports
– Analysis on rice smuggling to China
– Prospect of paddy and rice import in China from 2019 to 2023

Table of Contents

Table of Contents
1 Analysis on Environment of Paddy and Rice Import in China, 2019-2023
1.1 Economic Environment
1.1.1 China’s GDP and Disposable Income Per Capita
1.1.2 China’s Total Agricultural Output Value
1.2 Policy Environment
1.2.1 Eligibility Criteria for China’s Rice Import Quota
1.2.2 Tax Rate on Rice Import in China
1.2.3 Tax Rate on Paddy Import in China

2 Analysis on China’s Paddy and Rice Industry
2.1 Analysis on Paddy and Rice Yields in China
2.1.1 Paddy Yields in China
2.1.2 Rice Yields in China
2.2 Analysis on Export Volumes of Paddy and Rice in China
2.3 Analysis on Prices of Paddy and Rice in China

3 Analysis on Paddy and Rice Import in China
3.1 Scale of Paddy and Rice Import in China
3.1.1 Import Volumes of Paddy and Rice in China
3.1.2 Import Values of Paddy and Rice in China
3.2 Analysis on China’s Reliance on Paddy and Rice Imports
3.2.1 Apparent Consumption of Paddy and Rice in China
3.2.2 China’s Reliance on Paddy and Rice Imports
3.3 Import Prices of Paddy and Rice in China
3.3.1 Average Import Prices of Paddy and Rice in China
3.3.2 Comparison of Prices of Domestic and Imported Paddy and Rice
3.4 Major Sources of China’s Paddy and Rice Imports
3.5 Rice Smuggling to China

4 Vietnam’s Paddy and Rice Industry
4.1 Paddy and Rice Yields in Vietnam
4.2 Scale of Paddy and Rice Export in Vietnam
4.2.1 Export Volumes of Paddy and Rice in Vietnam
4.2.2 Vietnam’s Paddy and Rice Exports to China
4.2.3 Vietnam’s Reliance on Paddy and Rice Exports to China

5 Thailand’s Paddy and Rice Industry
5.1 Paddy and Rice Yields in Thailand
5.2 Scale of Paddy and Rice Export in Thailand
5.2.1 Export Volumes of Paddy and Rice in Thailand
5.2.2 Thailand’s Paddy and Rice Exports to China
5.2.3 Thailand’s Reliance on Paddy and Rice Exports to China

6 Pakistan’s Paddy and Rice Industry
6.1 Rice Yields in Pakistan
6.2 Pakistan’s Rice Exports to China

7 Cambodia’s Paddy and Rice Industry
7.1 Rice Yields in Cambodia
7.2 Cambodia’s Rice Exports to China

8 Forecast on Paddy and Rice Import in China, 2019-2023
8.1 Factors Influencing Paddy and Rice Import in China
8.1.1 Driving Forces and Market Opportunities
8.1.2 Threats and Challenges
8.2 Forecast on Supply of and Demand for Paddy and Rice in China
8.3 Prospect of Paddy and Rice Import in China

Selected Charts
Chart Tax Rate on Rice Import in China
Chart Tax Rate on Paddy Import in China
Chart China’s Urbanization Level, 2007-2017
Chart Paddy Yields in China, 2013-2017
Chart Rice Yields in China, 2013-2017
Chart Export Volumes of Paddy and Rice in China, 2013-2018
Chart Average Prices of Japonica Rice in China, 2014-2018
Chart Import Volumes of Paddy and Rice in China, 2013-2017
Chart Import Values of Paddy and Rice in China, 2013-2018
Chart Apparent Consumption of Paddy and Rice in China, 2013-2017
Chart China’s Reliance on Paddy and Rice Imports, 2013-2017
Chart Average Import Prices of Paddy and Rice in China, 2013-2018
Chart Prices of Domestic and Imported Paddy and Rice in China, 2014-2018
Chart Rice Yields in Vietnam, 2013-2017
Chart Export Volumes of Rice in Vietnam, 2013-2017
Chart Volumes of China’s Rice Imports from Vietnam, 2013-2017
Chart Vietnam’s Reliance on Rice Exports to China, 2013-2017
Chart Rice Yields in Thailand, 2013-2017
Chart Export Volumes of Paddy and Rice in Thailand, 2013-2017
Chart Volumes of China’s Rice Imports from Thailand, 2013-2017
Chart Thailand’s Reliance on Rice Exports to China, 2013-2017
Chart Volumes of China’s Rice Imports from Pakistan, 2013-2017
Chart Volumes of China’s Rice Imports from Cambodia, 2013-2017
Chart Forecast on Import Volumes of Paddy and Rice in China, 2019-2023

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