Analysis on Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum in China, 2018

admin — Wed, 20 Jun 2018 01:42:28 +0000

In 2017, the supply-side reform brought aluminum to the spotlight and also constantly lifted its price. Since 2000, the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly, from 24 million tons that year to the current volume of 63 million tons, with an increase of 160%. More than 80% of the increase came from China. Now China’s electrolytic aluminum production and sales account for over 50% of the world’s total. In 2017, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 14.8 times of that in 2000, with the CAGR up to 17.2%. It is expected that by 2018, supply-side reforms will limit the growth rate of new production capacity.

Chart New Production Capacity (10 thousand/year) of Electrolytic Aluminum in China

Enterprise	Start/End of Enlarging Production Capacity	Note	Production Capacity in Operation	New Production Capacity	Capacity Put into Production in 2017	Capacity Put into Production in 2018
Guangxi Suyuan Investment Co., Ltd.	Q1 2017	Put into production	10	10	10	0
Inner Mongolia Jinlian Aluminum Co., Ltd.	Q1 2017	Put into production	100	5	5	0
Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd.	Q1 2017	Put into production	750	50	50	0
Jinghongyuan Induatrial Co., Ltd.	Q2 2017	Put into production	5	5	5	0
Inner Mongolia Huayun	Q2 2017	Put into production	62	78	50	28
Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd.	Q3 2017	Put into production	800	100	100	0
Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Co., Ltd.	Q3 2017	Under Construction	0	10	0	10
East Hope	Q3 2017	Stagnation	160	20	0	0
Xinjiang Jiarun Resource Holding Limited	Q3 2017	Stagnation	60	30	0	0
Guangxi Hualei	Q3 2017	Electricity construction	0	40	20	20
Guizhou Huaren	Q3 2017	Electricity construction	0	50	25	25
China Aluminum Huarun Co., Ltd.	Q4 2017	Under Construction	0	50	25	25
Inner Mongolia Mengtai	Q4 2017	Under Construction	0	50	10	10
Guangxi Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd	Q4 2017	Under Construction	25	25	10	15
Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Electricity Co., Ltd.	Q4 2017	Under Construction	80	38	10	28
Shaanxi MEIXIN Industry Investment Co., Ltd.	Q4 2017	Under Construction	0	30	10	20
Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd.	Q4 2017	Under Construction	0	80	0	30
Inner Mongolia Jinlian	Q4 2017	Postponed construction	105	55	0	0
Liaoning Zhongwang Aluminum Co., Ltd.	Q1 2018	Under Construction	40	43	0	43
Shandong Xinfa Group	Q1 2018	Postponed construction	220	100	0	0
Yunnan Zhaotong	Q3 2018	Under Construction	0	35	0	20
Chongqing Energy Banner Co., Ltd.	Q3 2018	Under Construction	34	17	0	17
East Hope Baotou Rare Earth Co., Ltd	Q3 2018	Under Construction	88	39	0	39
Inner Mongolia Huayun	Q3 2018	Under Construction	112	80	0	0
Guangxi Baise Mining Aluminium Co., Ltd	Q3 2018	Under Construction	30	30	0	15
Guangxi Suyuan	Q3 2018	Under Construction	10	30	0	15
Xingren Denggao Aluminum Co., Ltd.	Q3 2018	Stagnation	10	10	-	-
Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua	Q2 2019	Plan on construction	0	80	0	0
Guangxi Hualei	Q2 2019	Plan on construction	0	40	0	0
Guizhou Huaren	Q2 2019	Plan on construction	0	50	0	0
China Aluminum Ningxia Energy Group Limited	Q4 2019	Plan on construction	0	45	0	0

Source: Public Data

In 2017, the supply-side reform reached its summit, driving up the price of aluminum. Underpinned by the fundamental analysis, the price is predicated to maintain at a high level and may hit a new record, which lifts up the price of electrolytic aluminum.

Chart Supply and Demand of China’s Electrolytic Aluminum Industry (10 thousand, ton)

–	2015	2016	2017E	2018E	2019E	2020E
Production Volume	3058	3180	3650	3780	3980	4180
Net Import Volume	12	8	7	5	5	5
Apparent Consumption	3070	3188	3657	3785	3985	4185
Inventory Gap	75	-65	100	-20	-48	-50
Consumption Volume	2995	3253	3557	3805	4033	4235

Source: Public Data

The post Analysis on Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum in China, 2018 first appeared on CRI Report.

electrolytic aluminum – CRI Report

Analysis on Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum in China, 2018