2019/6/3 – CRI Report

Research Report on Global and China’s Commercial Vehicle Industries, 2019-2023

admin — Thu, 30 May 2019 06:35:55 +0000

Global and China’s Commercial Vehicle Industries

Topics covered:

– Economic and policy environment for the commercial vehicle industry
– Analysis on supply of and demand for commercial vehicles
– Manufacturing costs and prices of commercial vehicles in China
– Analysis on import and export of commercial vehicles in China
– Competition on China’s commercial vehicle market
– Major commercial vehicle manufacturers in China
– Driving forces and market opportunities for the commercial vehicle industry
– Threats and challenges to the commercial vehicle industry
– Forecast on supply of and demand for commercial vehicles in China from 2019 to 2023

In terms of design and technical characteristics, commercial vehicles are vehicles that are used to transport people and goods.
They include trucks that are designed and equipped for carrying goods and buses that have more than nine seats and are used to carry a large number of passengers and their carry-on baggage.

According to CRI, compared with air transport, rail transport, water transport and other modes of transport, highway transport has door-to-door advantage and high cost performance. By the end of 2018, the length of China’s highways totaled 4,846,500 kilometers, increasing by 73,100 kilometers as compared to 2017; road density reached 50.48 km/100 sq.km., increasing by 0.76 km/100 sq.km. as compared to 2017; the freight traffic of highways reached 39.57 billion tons, increasing by 7.30% YOY; the freight turnover of highways reached 7,124.92 billion ton-km, increasing by 6.70% YOY. The growing highway traffic boosts the demand for commercial vehicles.

The production volume of commercial vehicles in China increased from 3,791,000 units in 2014 to 4,371,000 units in 2018. Although it showed a YOY decrease in 2015, it kept rising from 2016 to 2018. Especially in 2018 when the production and sales of automobiles declined, the production and sales of commercial vehicles both achieved growth.

According to CRI, China’s commercial market is deeply influenced by policies. For example, from 2014 to 2015, the Chinese government released some restrictive policies on commercial vehicles, which led to a decline in commercial vehicle production. In 2016, the government started to subsidize the commercial vehicle industry and took other encouraging measures, which pushed up the production of commercial vehicles to some extent. When the tolls on highways began to be collected based on actual load, the sales volume of light trucks increased. When the emission standards were raised, enterprises accelerated technological innovation and the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles increased.

CRI expects that, with the improvement of road networks and the development of rural roads, both the freight traffic and passenger traffic of China’s highways will continue to grow from 2019 to 2023, which will stimulate the demand for commercial vehicles. In 2018, the fixed-asset investment in China reached CNY 63,563.60 billion, increasing by 5.90% YOY. The growth rate of fixed-asset investment has a great impact on the development of China’s commercial vehicle industry, especially the truck sub-industry. To ensure annual GDP growth rate of no less than 6%, from 2019 to 2023, the Chinese government will certainly increase investment in fixed assets, especially in infrastructure projects, which will drive the demand for commercial vehicles.

The post Research Report on Global and China’s Commercial Vehicle Industries, 2019-2023 first appeared on CRI Report.

Research Report on Global and China’s Cobalt Industries, 2019-2023

admin — Thu, 30 May 2019 06:35:53 +0000

Description
The industry chain of cobalt mainly includes cobalt ore mining and dressing (upstream), cobalt smelting and processing (midstream) and terminal utilization of cobalt (downstream). In the upstream, Congo (Kinshasa) accounts for nearly half of the global cobalt ore reserves and production; in the midstream, China contributes nearly half to global production capacity and production volume of cobalt salts, cobalt and cobalt powder; in the downstream, cobalt is applied in batteries, high-temperature alloys, cemented carbides, magnetic materials, etc.
By the end of 2018, global cobalt reserves totaled about 7 million tons, 3.30 million tons or 40% of which were in Congo (Kinshasa). Australia, Cuba. etc. accounted for 5% to 15% respectively while China only accounted for only about 1%. However, Chinese enterprises ranked the first in the world in terms of production volume.
In 2018, the global production volume of cobalt was about 145,000 tons, increasing by nearly 20% YOY. The production volume of cobalt in Congo (Kinshasa) was about 106,000 tons, increasing by over 40% YOY. Cobalt production expanded rapidly in Congo (Kinshasa) mainly because Glencore’s KCC project produced 11,000 tons of cobalt in 2018 after it resumed production and other major cobalt mines increased production in varying degrees. But as the cobalt produced by the KCC project in 2018 and 2019 contains excessive uranium, it cannot be put on the spot market at present. In 2018, the global production volume of refined cobalt reached 126,000 tons, increasing by about 9% YOY. In China, the production volume of refined cobalt exceeded 80,000 tons and the market demand exceeded 60,000 tons. Besides, cobalt demand also increased. However, global cobalt prices dropped sharply in 2018 because of oversupply.
In recent years, global cobalt production stay above 100,000 tons/year and cobalt demand is also small. Therefore, cobalt prices can be easily manipulated to soar or slump, which is different from copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and other bulk commodities.
According to CRI, cobalt is mostly used in battery materials. It is estimated that in 2018, more than 50% of global cobalt consumption was attributable to the materials for 3C batteries, energy storage batteries, power batteries for new energy vehicles and other batteries. In recent years, China is the world’s largest producer and seller of electric vehicles. In 2018, battery materials accounted for about 80% cobalt consumption in China.
If there is no major technological innovation, the cobalt demand from cemented carbides, high-temperature alloys and magnetic materials will remain stable in the next few years. And battery materials will be the largest growth driver for the cobalt demand from 2019 to 2023.
It is expected that li-ion batteries for electric vehicles will be the largest growth area for cobalt consumption in the battery sector. In recent years, the global production volume of electric vehicles has been growing fast at a growth rate far exceeding that of traditional vehicles. In 2018, the production volume of electric vehicles in China reached about 1.29 million units, increasing by 60% as compared to 2017. The demand for cobalt, an important raw material for electric vehicle batteries, will grow rapidly. Power batteries have taken up the largest proportion of the downstream applications of cobalt.
As global new energy vehicle industry is developing rapidly, the global cobalt demand will also continue to rise. It is expected that from 2019 to 2023, the global production volume of new energy vehicles will grow at a CAGR of over 30%, the cobalt demand from ternary materials will grow at a CAGR of over 50% and the demand for energy storage lithium batteries will grow at a CAGR of nearly 50%. Meanwhile, ternary batteries will see an increase in penetration rate and their demand for cobalt will grow at a CAGR of 100%. The cobalt demand from 3C batteries and industrial batteries will maintain a CAGR of 2% to 3%. Overall, the CAGR of global cobalt demand will stay around 10% from 2019 to 2023.

Topics covered:
– Development environment for the cobalt industry
– Supply of and demand for cobalt on global and Chinese markets
– Analysis on major downstream industries of cobalt
– Price trend of cobalt
– Major cobalt mining and smelting enterprises and downstream enterprises in China and the world
– Driving forces and market opportunities for the cobalt industry from 2019 to 2023
– Threats and challenges to the cobalt industry from 2019 to 2023
– Prospect of global and China’s cobalt industries from 2019 to 2023

The post Research Report on Global and China’s Cobalt Industries, 2019-2023 first appeared on CRI Report.

Research Report on Global and China’s Nickel Industries, 2019-2023

admin — Thu, 30 May 2019 06:35:51 +0000

Description
The proven nickel reserves in China are only about 2.90 million tons, accounting for less than 4% of the global total. Dominated by nickel sulfide ores, China’s nickel resources are mainly distributed in Gansu, Xinjiang, Yunnan and Jilin. On one hand, it is difficult and costly to mine nickel in China. On the other hand, China is the world’s largest producer of stainless steel. In 2018, the production volume of stainless steel in China reached 26.71 million tons, accounting for 53% of the global total. Therefore, China needs to import a large quantity of nickel every year.
According to CRI, Southeast Asia has rich lateritic nickel ores and the mining costs there are low. Neighboring China, the world’s largest nickel consumer, Indonesia and the Philippines have become global leading suppliers of nickel resources. The production volume of nickel ores in the two countries account for more than 30% of the global total. Currently, over 90% of China’s lateritic nickel ore imports are from Indonesia and the Philippines. In 2013, China’s nickel ore imports from Indonesia reached the peak of 41 million tons. From 2015 to 2016, as the Indonesian government restricted nickel ore exports, China almost imported no nickel ores from Indonesia and turned to import nickel ores from the Philippines. From 2014 to 2016, China imported over 30 million tons of nickel ores from the Philippines every year. In 2017, as the Philippines shut down some nickel mines for environmental protection, local nickel ore production and nickel ore exports to China both declined. In the same year, as Indonesia relaxed its policy on nickel ore exports, its nickel ore exports to China increased. It is noteworthy that, to respond to the Indonesian government’s restrictions on crude ores, many Chinese nickel producers have invested in Indonesia’s ferronickel industry with expanding production capacity. From 2018 to 2019, the production capacity of nickel in Indonesia sees exponential growth. Before the subsequent stainless steel projects are put into operation, most ferronickel products will be transported to China. The annual production capacity of China-funded ferronickel projects in Indonesia has exceeded 3 million tons.
In 2017, the Indonesian government started to encourage foreign enterprises to build smelters in Indonesia by allowing the export of ores with less than 1.70% nickel content. As it is costly to smelt ores with less than 1.70% nickel content in Indonesia, such ores are usually exported. The policy stipulates that enterprises that have smelters in Indonesia can apply for nickel ore export quotas, which marks the resumption of nickel ore exports in Indonesia. In 2017, Indonesia’s nickel ore exports to China reached about 3.84 million tons.
Indonesia’s ferronickel exports to China have obvious cost advantages. In recent years, the proportion of Indonesian ferronickel in China’s ferronickel imports keeps picking up. In 2018, the proportion reached about 80%. The influx of Indonesian NPI press China’s domestic ferronickel factories. And the increasingly stringent environmental protection policies also restrict the production of some domestic ferronickel enterprises. As NPI supply in China increases markedly because of increasing ferronickel imports, China’s ferronickel market will be saddled with excessive supply.
In 2018, stainless steel accounted for about two thirds of global nickel consumption. In China, this proportion exceeded 80%. Driven by environmental protection and consumption upgrade, China’s stainless steel industry is accelerating industrial upgrade by replacing 200 series with 300 series. In this context, it has an increasing demand for nickel in recent years. It is expected that from 2019 to 2023, the demand from stainless steel will dominate global nickel consumption. However, with the fast development of the electric vehicle industry, the demand from li-ion batteries will increase sharply and take up a larger proportion.

Topics covered:
– Overview of global and China’s nickel industries
– Analysis on the industry chain of nickel
– Analysis on nickel import and export in China
– Major nickel producers in China and the world
– Price trend of nickel
– Major driving forces and market opportunities for the nickel industry from 2019 to 2023
– Prospect of China’s nickel industry from 2019 to 2023

The post Research Report on Global and China’s Nickel Industries, 2019-2023 first appeared on CRI Report.

Research Report on Global and China’s Integrated Circuit Industries, 2019 to 2023

admin — Thu, 30 May 2019 06:35:47 +0000

Global and China’s Integrated Circuit Industry

Topics covered:
– Status of global integrated circuit industry
– Chinese government’s supportive policies on the integrated circuit industry
– Supply of integrated circuits
– Market demand for integrated circuits
– Major integrated circuit enterprises in China
– Analysis on import and export of integrated circuits in China
– Threats and challenges to the integrated circuit industry
– Prospect of the integrated circuit industry from 2019 to 2023
– Impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war on the integrated circuit industry

Description
In 2018, the revenue of global integrated circuit industry totaled about USD 480 billion, representing a CAGR of less than 10% from 2014 to 2018; the revenue of China’s integrated circuit industry was about USD 98.70 billion, representing a CAGR of about 25% from 2014 to 2018.

In China, the revenue from integrated circuit designing was about USD 38.07 billion, accounting for 38.60% of the revenue of the integrated circuit industry; the revenue from integrated circuit manufacturing was about USD 27.48 billion, accounting for about 27.80%; the revenue from integrated circuit packaging and testing was about USD 33.15 billion, accounting for 33.60%.

According to CRI, since China joined the WTO, its integrated circuit industry has been developing. However, because of outdated technologies and insufficient talents, China’s integrated circuit manufacturing lags behind the international advanced level for one to two generations; integrated circuit designing contains low technological content and is monotonous; integrated circuit packaging and testing have a gap with the international mainstream level.

Therefore, China relies heavily on the imports of high-end integrated circuits. In 2018, the import volume of integrated circuits in China was 417.60 billion units, increasing by 10.80% YOY; the import value was USD 312.06 billion, increasing by about 20% YOY; the export volume was 217.10 billion units, increasing by 6.20% YOY; the export value was USD 84,636 million, increasing by 26.60% YOY. China’s trade deficit in integrated circuits reached USD 227.40 billion in 2018 and is still growing.

China has become an important market for global chip enterprises. In 2018, Chinese enterprises contributed more than half to the sales revenue of major U.S. chip enterprises such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, Micron and Marvell.

According to CRI, the growth of China’s integrated circuit market in recent years are mainly driven by automotive electronics, industrial automation, Internet of Things (IoT), communication equipment, etc. Global personal computer production is declining while smart phone production still has space for further expansion.

The development of cloud computing, IoT, big data, 5G and other relevant industries boost the demand for integrated circuits. China is the world’s largest foundry, automobile producer and consumer and electronics manufacturing base. It is expected that for a long time in the future, China will remain the world’s largest integrated circuit consumer, and the market size of integrated circuits in China will continue to grow.

In 2018, the production volume of automobiles in China decreased to 27.81 million units by 4.20% YOY while that of new energy vehicles (electric vehicles) increased to 1.27 million units by about 60% YOY. A new energy vehicle has far greater demand for integrated circuits than a fuel vehicle.

With the rapidly expanding production of new energy vehicles, the automotive industry has become a major driving force for the growth of China’s integrated circuit market. In 2018, the production volumes of smart phones and personal computers in China reached more than 1.30 billion units and about 300 million units respectively, both ranking the first in the world.

As labor costs keep rising in recent years, it is indispensable for China to enhance automation in manufacturing. The growing demand for industrial automation equipment such as CNC machine tools and industrial robots increases the demand for integrated circuits.

In the context of wider IT applications and booming IoT, China has an increasing demand for smart cities, smart logistics and industrial monitoring. According to CRI, the market size of IoT in China exceeded CNY 1 trillion in 2018, which means that the demand for integrated circuits on China’s IoT market is also rising rapidly.

According to CRI, as China lags behind in integrated circuit technologies, China’s integrated circuit industry and its downstream industries will face huge risks such as production suspension in the Sino-U.S. trade war and other international trade disputes or sanctions. Theoretically, the localization of integrated circuits may take 10 to 20 years with an investment of over USD 200 billion.

Actually, it cannot be achieved within 20 years in lack of funds, advanced technologies and talents. It is expected that in the next few years, some Chinese integrated circuit enterprises will improve technologies and production capacity by importing advanced technologies and equipment, introducing high-end talents and even merging with or acquiring overseas integrated circuit enterprises. For global integrated circuit enterprises, the Chinese market is full of investment enterprises.

The post Research Report on Global and China’s Integrated Circuit Industries, 2019 to 2023 first appeared on CRI Report.

Research Report on Global and China’s Electric Vehicle Industries, 2019-2023

admin — Thu, 30 May 2019 06:35:43 +0000

Description
According to CRI, most of the world’s traditional automobile brands have launched electric vehicles. In China, in addition to traditional automobile brands, some Internet companies have also begun to develop, produce and sell electric vehicles. The Chinese government has set lower barriers to entry in electric vehicle manufacturing than in fuel vehicle manufacturing, which allows more capital to the electric vehicle industry. As the structure of an electric vehicle is quite different from that of a fuel vehicle, the industry chain of electric vehicles also differs greatly from that of fuel vehicles. Li-ion power battery manufacturing and the manufacturing of other electric vehicle parts have become independent industries. Besides, the operating model of the electric vehicle charging pile industry is also different from that of traditional gas station industry.
Since 2014, the Chinese central government has been promoting the hybrid plug-in electric vehicle as a key product. Its subsidies concerning hybrid plug-in electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles are both based on the capacity of power battery. In addition, some local governments give a free license plate that is worth at most USD 10,000 or grant subsidies to each electric vehicle buyer. Thanks to these supportive policies, China’s electric vehicle industry has been developing rapidly in recent years.
According to CRI, in 2018, the global sales volume of electric vehicles (new energy vehicles) was about 2.02 million units, accounting for about 2.30% of the global automobile sales. In China, the sales volume of electric vehicles reached about 1,256,000 units, accounting for 4.50% of automobile sales. China has become the world’s largest electric vehicle market. By the sales volume of new energy vehicles, in 2018, Tesla ranked the first on the global market, followed by Chinese automakers BYD Auto Co., Ltd. that sold 227,364 new energy vehicles and Beijing Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. The global rankings of electric vehicle manufacturers also included five Chinese automakers with self-developed brands, which took up a market share of 49%.
Considering the prices of electricity and refined oil products in China, it costs much less to drive a battery electric vehicle than to drive a fuel vehicle. However, the development of battery electric vehicles is restricted by short driving range, expensive batteries and insufficient charging stations. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle popular in recent years is a new-type hybrid electric vehicle. It can be powered by a rechargeable battery. When the battery runs out, it can be powered by internal combustion engine. The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle is superior to the battery electric vehicle in both endurance and practicability. However, Chinese consumers do not care much about endurance because they mostly drive electric vehicles in cities. Moreover, the Chinese government gives higher subsidies to the buyers of battery electric vehicles. Therefore, battery electric vehicles dominate China’s electric vehicle market .
To reduce air pollution and enhance the competitiveness of domestic automakers, the Chinese government set the target of bringing the sales volume of electric vehicles to 7 million units, or at least one fifth of the automobile sales in China by 2025. It is expected that the Chinese government will continue to directly subsidize the electric vehicle industry from 2019 to 2023, but the average subsidy amount will decrease and the subsides will cover less vehicle models. In 2018, the central government cancelled the subsidies for electric vehicles with a driving range below 150 kilometers. But as many Chinese cities restrict the purchase and passage of fuel vehicles and the use of electric vehicles costs less, from 2019 to 2023, the CAGRs of electric vehicle production and sales in China are expected to stay above 30%, far exceeding those of automobile production and sales.

Topics covered:
– Development environment for electric vehicles
– Industry chain of electric vehicles
– The Chinese government’s supportive policies on the electric vehicle industry
– Annual and monthly production and sales volumes of electric vehicles in China
– Status of China’s charging pile industry
– Status of China’s li-ion power battery industry
– Major electric vehicle manufacturers in China
– Competition on China’s electric vehicle market
– Driving forces and market opportunities for the development of the electric vehicle industry
– Threats and challenges to the development of the electric vehicle industry
– Forecast on the supply of and demand for electric vehicles on global and Chinese markets from 2019 to 2023

The post Research Report on Global and China’s Electric Vehicle Industries, 2019-2023 first appeared on CRI Report.