soybean – CRI Report

Research Report on China’s Soybean Import 2023-2032

admin — Mon, 14 Nov 2022 03:38:21 +0000

China’s Soybean Import Overview

With the development of China’s economy and rising living standards, the demand for soybean in the Chinese market is on the rise. Due to the limited arable land, there is little room for growth in China’s local soybean production, and China needs to import a large amount of soybean every year.

In 2021, China’s soybean imports totaled 96.467 million tons, down 3.8% year-over-year, with imports of US$53.52 billion, up 35.3%. in the first three quarters of 2022, China’s soybean imports totaled 69.043 million tons, down 6.6% year-over-year, with imports of US$46.52 billion, up 16.2%.

In 2021, the top five source countries for China’s soybean imports according to import volume were Brazil, the United States, Argentina, Uruguay and Canada. Among them, Brazil ranked first in soybean imports, with 58.147 million tons, accounting for 60.3% of total imports, and imports amounting to US$33.14 billion, or 61.9%. According to CRI’s analysis, in the first three quarters of 2022, Russia overtook Canada to rank among the top five sources of soybean imports to China for the first time, with Russian soybean imports reaching 50.0 million tons, up 12.4% year-on-year. Among soybean importers, Brazil remained at the top, with imports amounting to 46.498 million tons, accounting for 67.3% of total imports.

In 2022, China divided non-seeded yellow soybeans into two categories: genetically modified (GM) and non-GM yellow soybeans. According to CRI’s analysis, China’s soybean imports are mainly GM yellow soybeans, and China’s imports of GM yellow soybeans in the first three quarters of 2022 amounted to 67.633 million tons, accounting for 98.0% of the total imports, and the import value amounted to US$45.62 billion, accounting for 98.1% of the total imports.

CRI expects that as China’s national living standards rise, the demand for soybeans in the Chinese market will continue to rise in the coming years, while the upside of China’s domestic soybean production is effective and more than 80% of the soybeans consumed in China will still rely on imports.

Topics covered:

China’s Soybean Import Status and Major Sources in 2018-2022
What is the Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Soybean Import?
Which Companies are the Major Players in China’s Soybean Import Market and What are their Competitive Benchmarks?
Key Drivers and Market Opportunities in China’s Soybean Import
What are the Key Drivers, Challenges, and Opportunities for China’s Soybean Import during 2023-2032?
What is the Expected Revenue of China’s Soybean Import during 2023-2032?
What are the Strategies Adopted by the Key Players in the Market to Increase Their Market Share in the Industry?
What are the Competitive Advantages of the Major Players in China’s Soybean Import Market?
Which Segment of China’s Soybean Import is Expected to Dominate the Market in 2032?
What are the Major Adverse Factors Facing China’s Soybean Import?

The post Research Report on China’s Soybean Import 2023-2032 first appeared on CRI Report.

Analytical Report on Soybean Import in China, 2018-2022

admin — Thu, 15 Nov 2018 02:04:08 +0000

Updated Report: Research report on imported soybeans in China 2020-2024

Soybean Import Overview

As the largest soybean consumer in the world, China consumed about 110 million tons of soybeans in 2017, about one-third of the world’s total soybean consumption. In China, soybeans are mainly used for the extraction of edible oils and the making of bean products. Soybean meal, the by-product of oil extraction, is a high-quality feed that is widely used in China’s livestock breeding industry.

China’s soybean consumption is rising. However, soybean planting is a low-profit and even money-losing industry in China in the context of low-level agricultural technologies and rising labor costs, which makes it difficult to significantly increase domestic soybean yields.

For example, from 2012 to 2017, China’s soybean consumption surged from 74.85 million tons to 112.18 million tons while its soybean yields just increased from 13.01 million tons to 14.55 million tons. In 2015, the soybean yields even fell to 11.78 million tons.

The wide gap between the yields and consumption forces Chinese companies to satisfy the market demand by importing soybeans. From 2013 to 2017, the import volume of soybeans in China inched up from 58.38 million tons to 95.53 million tons.

In 2017, the soybeans imported from Brazil and the U.S. reached 50.93 million tons and 32.85 million tons respectively, accounting for 53.3% and 34.4% respectively of the total soybean imports.

The more important reason for China’s largely importing soybeans is that foreign soybeans have higher yields and oil yields. Thanks to transgenic species, large-scale planting and modernized agricultural technologies, the major soybean producing countries in South and North America outperform China in both planting cost control and per unit area yield, and thus have distinct price advantages.

This is also the core reason why imported soybeans occupy a major share of the Chinese market. In addition, higher oil yields of imported soybeans are also an advantage over domestic ones. The oil yields of domestic soybeans range from 16% to 17%, while those of imported transgenic ones range from 19% to 20%, which are 3% higher.

This difference directly affects the profits on soybean crushing. On the whole, domestic soybeans cannot compete with imported ones either in prices or in oil yields.

China’s soybean industry is heavily reliant on imports and is thus vulnerable to the impact of international soybean prices. China has weak pricing power on the soybean market. To encourage soybean planting, the Chinese government has introduced some incentives, for example, government subsidies. However, the incentives including low subsidies are not effective enough to dramatically increase domestic soybean yields.

In Jul. 2018, the Chinese government began to impose a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods including soybeans, which made the cost of importing U.S. soybeans about 40 USD/ton to 50 USD/ton higher than that of importing Brazilian soybeans. In this context, some Chinese importers are considering turning to Brazil.

Although Brazil is the world’s largest soybean exporter, Brazilian soybeans are unlikely to completely replace the soybean imports from the U.S. It is mainly because that the soybean imports from other countries like Argentina, Paraguay and Canada total less than 15 million tons every year, and have limited growth potential.

It is expected that with an expanding population and improving living standards, the demand for soybeans in China will continue to grow in the next few years. As the domestic soybean yields can hardly be increased, over 80% soybean consumption will rely on imports.

There are many uncertainties in the Sino-U.S. trade war. If China and the U.S. can reach a compromise on bilateral trade, in 2019, U.S. soybean imports to China may rebound rapidly; otherwise, the tariffs will remain at the current level or be increased, and there will be a surge in the prices and a plummet in the volume of U.S. soybeans imported to China.

Even if Chinese importers turn their attention to countries such as Brazil, the soaring demand will push up the prices of soybeans from these countries and press Chinese importers in cost. Overall, the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war will increase the cost of importing soybeans, which means that Chinese consumers will have to pay more for soybean oil, bean products, dairy products, pork, eggs, etc.

Topics Covered:
– Demand for soybeans in China
– Status of soybean planting in China
– Soybean import in China
– Major Chinese importers of soybeans
– Major sources of soybean imports to China
– Impact of Sino-U.S. trade war on China’s import of soybeans
– Forecasts on soybean import in China from 2019 to 2023

The post Analytical Report on Soybean Import in China, 2018-2022 first appeared on CRI Report.

Research Report on China Soybean Industry, 2018-2022

admin — Fri, 17 Aug 2018 09:06:45 +0000

Description
The soybean industry includes the departments and segments of national economy related to soybean production, trade, processing, logistics, R&D and relevant services. The soybean industry chain is the longest one of major agricultural commodities in China, involving planting, processing, supply of edible oil, forage, breeding, etc. With the development of China’s economy and the improving living standards, the consumption volume of edible oil per capita is also rising, which was less than 3kg in 1980 but already more than 20kg in 2017. A large part of the edible oil in China is transgenic soybean oil because of its low price and high production volume.
China was a leading producer of soybeans. In the early 1990s, the highest export volume exceeded 1 million tons in China as a net exporter of soybeans. However, soybean has become a kind of agricultural products with the largest import volume in China. Since 1996, the domestic production volume of soybeans has been on the decline. From 1995 to 2002, the import volume of soybeans constantly increased while the export volume declined year by year. The import volume of soybeans in China reached 13.94 million tons in 2002, which was close to the domestic production volume of soybeans. In 2003, the imported soybeans amounted to 20.74 million tons, first exceeding the domestic production volume. The import volume was already over 90 million tons in 2017.
As the soybean supply in China depends on imports, the spot price of domestic soybeans is closely related to the cost of imports. The import cost of soybeans from the U.S. and South America is directly linked to the spot price of domestic soybeans in the same year. In addition, the import cost is of little difference between South American soybeans and American ones, while the costs are even highly related to each other.
From 2004, the domestic soybean processing enterprises experienced the overall losses while international grain businesses entered China and took the chance to occupy over half of the market shares, which was followed by the transfer from trade businesses to processing enterprises. The domestic enterprises purchase soybeans at high cost in 2004 while the soybean price declined sharply from then on, leading to the closing down of numerous import enterprises in China.
In the processing of soybeans, major evaluation indexes include the degree of self-support and prices of soybeans in China. The self-support degree of the domestic soybeans is lower than 20% and is likely to continue to decline. The price of soybeans fluctuated sharply, particularly influenced by imported soybeans.
Currently, in terms of soybean processing, foreign capital dominates in the Chinese capital structure of the oil crusher industry. There are two targets for foreign capital in the domestic soybean processing industry. One is to sell larger number of soybeans to China, and another is to occupy more market shares by beating the competition in China.
In order to earn more profits, many foreign-funded grain and oil enterprises are aimed to establish a complete industrial chain from agricultural means of production, production of agricultural products to agricultural processing and goods circulation.
It is estimated that as the demand for soybeans in the Chinese market continues to increase, and there is no growth potential for the production volume of the domestic soybeans, the import volume will keep growing in the next few years.
Importance of Importing American Soybeans from the View of CRI
Over the past ten years, the rising level of urbanization has been triggered by the economic development in China. (By the end of 2017, the domestic urbanization rate reached 58.5%.) In China, agriculture is dominated by small-scale production with extremely low profits. Therefore, many rural population floods into cities and towns for a job rather than working in the farms resulting in a declining labor population of rural areas. China also becomes more and more dependent on imported food. In order to meet the demands for grain and feed processing and the food industry, it needs to import a considerable number of soybeans, rice, wheats, corns, etc. As an important grain crop and oil-bearing crop, soybean is irreplaceable with various uses. Due to the high cost and low oil yield, the cost performance of home-grown soybeans is far below that of imported ones. For one thing, the higher planting cost of the domestic soybean leads to its price exceeding that of the imported ones. For another, the oil yield of the domestic soybeans usually ranges from 16% to 17%, while that of the imported transgenic ones generally ranges from 19% to 20%, 3-4% higher than the former. The difference in oil yield directly affects the profit of soybean crushing. The profit margin of using imported soybeans as raw materials for oil extraction is higher than that of using domestic ones. Bean pulp, a by-product after oil extraction of soybean, is an important vegetable protein feed.
According to CRI, the annual production volume of soybeans is estimated to be lower than 13 million tons in China in recent years. However, as the economy develops and the living standards increase in China, the annual demand for soybeans keeps rising, exceeding 100 million tons in 2017. Obviously, the homegrown soybeans cannot satisfy the domestic market demand, so China has to import numerous soybeans every year. In 2017, the import volume of soybeans in China totaled 95.535 million tons, increasing by 13.85% YOY. The import value reached USD 39.62 billion, increasing by 16.63% YOY. At present, China has a single source of imported soybeans, mainly comprising Brazil and the U.S. In 2017, Brazil was the largest source of imported soybeans to China, the import volume from which reached 50.928 million tons. The U.S. ranked second, and China imported 32.854 million tons of soybeans from the country in 2017, with the import value amounting to USD 13.933 billion. Both the import volume and import value accounted for more than 1/3 of those of the domestic soybeans.
Based on the analysis of CRI, if China reduces the imported soybeans from the U.S. and increases imports from other countries, there will be two problems: (1) increasing prices of the suppliers from other countries; (2) and lack of reliable alternative sources in China. As the largest source of imported soybeans to China, Brazil has produced approximately 100 to 110 million tons of soybeans a year in recent years. Because of more than 200 million population and the advanced animal husbandry, the country itself also needs to consume a number of soybeans. In 2017, the export volume of soybeans in Brazil reached about 57 million tons, almost 90% of which was exported to China. Supposing that the import volume of soybeans from the U.S. to China decreases by a half YOY in 2018, totaling about 16.4 million tons, the imports from Brazil can only fill up the gap of 6 million tons, while the rest 10.4 million tons will be a big loss that is difficult to compensate for. There is an opinion that Russia can be an alternative importer, but China only imported 0.51 million tons of soybeans from the country in 2017, accounting for about 0.5% of the total import volume. The production volume of soybeans in Russia even totaled no more than 4 million tons in 2017. Unlike the industrial goods, agricultural products are hard to rapidly increase the production capacity, because the production volume is greatly influenced by natural conditions. Besides, it is also impossible for the suggestion that the domestic migrant workers return to the rural areas for soybean planting or go to the Russian Far East to open up wasteland for soybeans.
CRI report also suggests that tax on the imported soybeans from the U.S. will lead to the increase in prices of both imported soybeans and domestic ones. Admittedly, the rising prices will influence the downstream of the industry, such as processing industries of soybean oils, bean products and feeds. As a consequence, ordinary consumers will have to face the higher prices of edible oil and food. In addition, the CPI and even the inflation level will also rise to a certain extent. However, as for the low-income people, their living standards will decline. Soybean belongs to a basic agricultural product instead of luxury goods. For the Chinese enterprises and consumers, soybean oil is an important source of edible oil and bean products are also the significant food. On top of this, the pig raising, poultry raising and aquaculture industries are inseparable from the high-quality feed of bean pulp. With the support of imported soybeans, the production volumes of pork, poultry meat and eggs and aquatic products in China can all rank top in the world. If there is a shortage of soybeans in the Chinese market and the rapid increase in soybean prices, only a few of soybean importers and distributors can earn huge profits. In fact, it will be harmful to the interests of most people.

Table of Contents
1 Major Economic Characteristics of Soybean Industry
1.1 Product Features
1.1.1 Definition and Classification of Soybeans
1.1.2 Overview of Soybean Industry Chain
1.2 Analysis on Economic Environment of China Soybean Industry Operation
1.2.1 Macro Economy in China and the Globe
1.2.2 Global Economy
1.2.3 China Economy
1.3 Analysis on Policy Environment of China Soybean Industry
1.3.1 Planting Policies
1.3.2 Import and Export Policies
1.3.3 Policies on Soybean Processing Industry

2 Analysis on Soybean Production in China, 2007- 2017
2.1 Planting Area
2.2 Distribution of Soybean Planting Regions in China
2.3 Production Volume of Soybeans in China
2.4 Analysis on Costs and Profits of Soybean Planting in China

3 Analysis on Market Demand of Soybean Industry in China, 2013- 2017
3.1 Overview on Overall Market Demand
3.2 Analysis on Demand for Soybeans in Food Industry
3.3 Analysis on Demand for Soybeans in Vegetable Oil Processing Industry
3.4 Analysis on Demand for Soybeans in Forage Processing Industry
3.5 Others

4 Analysis on Prices in China Soybean Market, 2015-2017
4.1 Soybean Prices in China
4.1.1 Prices of Domestic Soybeans
4.1.2 Prices of Imported Soybeans
4.2 Analysis on Factors Influencing Soybean Prices
4.3 Analysis on Influence of Imported Soybeans on Prices of China Soybean Market
4.4 Forecast on Soybean Price Trend in China, 2018-2020

5 Analysis on Import and Export of Soybean Industry in China, 2013-2017
5.1 Analysis on Import and Export Management System of Soybeans in China
5.2 Analysis on Export of Soybeans in China
5.2.1 Export Overview
5.2.2 Major Export Destinations
5.3 Analysis on Import of Soybeans in China
5.3.1 Import Overview
5.3.2 Analysis on Import Price
5.3.3 Analysis on Major Import Sources of Soybeans in China
5.4 Prediction on Import and Export Trend of China Soybeans

6 Analysis on Market Competition in China Soybean Industry
6.1 Competition between Domestic Soybeans and Imported Soybeans
6.2 Competition between Transgenic Soybeans and Non-Transgenic Soybeans
6.3 Competition among Imported Soybeans
6.4 Competition Trend in China Soybean Industry

7 Analysis on Major Foreign-Funded Soybean Processing Enterprises in China, 2013-2017
7.1 Wilmar International Limited
7.1.1 Overview of Wilmar International Limited
7.1.2 Operation Status of Wilmar International Limited in China
7.2 Cargill
7.2.1 Enterprise Profile
7.2.2 Operation Status of Cargill in China
7.2.3 Development Strategies of Cargill in China
7.3 Noble Group
7.3.1 Enterprise Profile
7.3.2 Operation Status of Noble Group in China
7.3.3 Development Strategies of Noble Group in China
7.4 Bunge
7.5 Archer Daniels Midland

8 Analysis on Major Domestic Soybean Processing Enterprises in China, 2013-2017
8.1 COFCO Corporation
8.1.1 Enterprise Profile of COFCO Corporation
8.1.2 Operation Status of COFCO Corporation
8.2 Jiusan Oils & Grains Industries Group Co., Ltd.
8.3 Other Enterprises

9 Prediction on Development of Soybean Industry in China, 2018- 2022
9.1 Analysis on Factors Influencing Development
9.1.1 Major Driving Forces and Market Opportunities
9.1.2 Risks and Challenges
9.2 Forecast on Supply of Soybeans in China
9.3 Forecast on Demand for Soybeans in China

Selected Charts
Chart Planting Area of Soybeans in China, 2007-2017
Chart Production Volume of Soybeans in China, 2007-2017
Chart Export Volume and Export Value of Soybeans in China, 2003-2017
Chart Import Volume and Import Value of Soybeans in China, 2003-2017
Chart Processing Capacity Change of Foreign-Funded Soybean Processing Factories in China, 2006-2017
Chart Actual Processing Volume of Foreign-Funded Soybean Processing Factories in China, 2006-2017
Chart Forecast on Import Volume of Soybeans in China, 2018-2022
Chart Analysis on Demand Structure of China Soybeans
Chart Production Volume of Edible Vegetable Oil in China, 2013-2017
Chart Consumption Volume Per Capita of Edible Vegetable Oil Per Capita in China, 2007-2017
Chart Analysis on Self-Support Degree of China Soybeans, 2007-2017

The post Research Report on China Soybean Industry, 2018-2022 first appeared on CRI Report.