Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and is a major public health burden in both developed and developing countries. The rate of cancer incidences in China is exploding very rapidly. China’s cancer treatment drug market continues rising owing to the increasing prevalence of various types of cancer, changing lifestyle & dietary habits, growing aging population. Nearly 4 million people diagnosed and almost 3 million died from it. For instance, due to increasing air pollution over the last couple of years, lung cancer has increased 50% in Beijing only. Anticancer drugs act like an inhibitor that prevents cancer cells to grow. China’s cancer treatment drug market continues rising owing to the increasing prevalence of various types of cancer, changing lifestyle & dietary habits, growing aging population.
CRI has published a series of anti-cancer drug market research reports to specifically analyze the market status quo and prospect.
According to CRI’s market research, after Aflibercept entered the Chinese market, the sales value of Aflibercept in China increased from CNY8.3 million in 2018 to CNY 110 million in 2020. The annual growth rate in 2020 was 105.1%, which slowed down due to the COVID-19 epidemic. The CAGR of the sales value of Aflibercept in China is 264% from 2018 to 2020.
CRI analyzes that as the epidemic situation has been improved and the hospitals resume their operation, the sales of Aflibercept will have a recovery growth from 2021 to 2025. In addition, the sales will also increase due to market expansion. Currently, China has only approved two indications for Aflibercept, including treatment of wAMD and treatment of DME. However, Aflibercept had five approved indications globally, which means the sales will continue to grow as the number of indications expands. On the other hand, though the anti-VEGF ophthalmic drug market where Aflibercept belongs to accounts for the largest market share in the ophthalmology drug industry, the penetration rate for the anti-VEGF drug is still low. The penetration rate for the anti-VEGF drug is about 1% in China, while it exceeds 5% in the U.S. Since the market demand has not yet reached saturation, the sales will keep increasing. Besides, Aflibercept was included in the national medical insurance catalog at the beginning of 2020, so the price has been lowered, which reduces the burden on patients and will stimulate sales in the future.
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According to CRI’s market research, after Ibrutinib entered the Chinese market, the sales value of Ibrutinib in China has increased from CNY48,600 in 2017 to CNY 345.5 million in 2020. In 2020, the growth rate was 38.2%, which slowed down due to the COVID-19 epidemic. The CAGR of the sales value of Ibrutinib in China is 1823% from 2017 to 2020.
CRI analyzes that as the epidemic situation has been improved and the hospitals resume their operation, the sales of Ibrutinib will have a recovery growth from 2021 to 2025. Besides, the sales will also increase due to price reduction and market expansion. Currently, Ibrutinib has three approved indications. In 2020, the latest approved indication was included in the national medical insurance catalog, while the other two had been included in the catalog in 2018. As all indications can take advantage of the insurance reimbursement, the usage rate of Ibrutinib will increase among the patients. Moreover, with the emergence of other BTK inhibitor drugs, the price of Ibrutinib may continue to decrease, which will lead to a rise in sales. On the other hand, China approves fewer indications for Ibrutinib than other countries do. Therefore, the number of approved indications has the potential to increase, which means the market will keep expanding in the future.
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According to CRI’s market research, the sales of Osimertinib have increased sharply since it entered the Chinese market. The sales revenue in 2020 was approximately CNY1.54 billion in China. Although the growth rate of Osimertinib slowed down last year, Osimertinib still has the highest rate in the Chinese pharmaceutical market. The CAGR of the sales value of Osimertinib in China was 451.7% from 2017 to 2020.
CRI analyzes the sales of Osimertinib will keep increasing as the market expands. The potential of market expansion depends on three aspects. Firstly, the increase in new cases of lung cancer patients will increase the demand for Osimertinib. The average number of new lung patients in China is about 730,000 people. In 2020, there were approximately 820,000 new patients which 80%-85% are NSCLC patients. A large number of patients drives the demand for medication. Secondly, the increase in the number of approved indications for Osimertinib will bring new target patients. Lastly, after renewing the national medical insurance drug list, patients may benefit more from the price reduction for the Osimertinib, which will also lead the sales volume of Osimertinib to increase.