Analysis on Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum in China, 2018
In 2017, the supply-side reform brought aluminum to the spotlight and also constantly lifted its price. Since 2000, the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly, from 24 million tons that year to the current volume of 63 million tons, with an increase of 160%. More than 80% of the increase came from China. Now China’s electrolytic aluminum production and sales account for over 50% of the world’s total. In 2017, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 14.8 times of that in 2000, with the CAGR up to 17.2%. It is expected that by 2018, supply-side reforms will limit the growth rate of new production capacity.
Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022
Chart New Production Capacity (10 thousand/year) of Electrolytic Aluminum in China
| Enterprise | Start/End of Enlarging Production Capacity | Note | Production Capacity in Operation | New Production Capacity | Capacity Put into Production in 2017 | Capacity Put into Production in 2018 |
| Guangxi Suyuan Investment Co., Ltd. | Q1 2017 | Put into production | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Inner Mongolia Jinlian Aluminum Co., Ltd. | Q1 2017 | Put into production | 100 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd. | Q1 2017 | Put into production | 750 | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| Jinghongyuan Induatrial Co., Ltd. | Q2 2017 | Put into production | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Inner Mongolia Huayun | Q2 2017 | Put into production | 62 | 78 | 50 | 28 |
| Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd. | Q3 2017 | Put into production | 800 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
| Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Co., Ltd. | Q3 2017 | Under Construction | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| East Hope | Q3 2017 | Stagnation | 160 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Xinjiang Jiarun Resource Holding Limited | Q3 2017 | Stagnation | 60 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| Guangxi Hualei | Q3 2017 | Electricity construction | 0 | 40 | 20 | 20 |
| Guizhou Huaren | Q3 2017 | Electricity construction | 0 | 50 | 25 | 25 |
| China Aluminum Huarun Co., Ltd. | Q4 2017 | Under Construction | 0 | 50 | 25 | 25 |
| Inner Mongolia Mengtai | Q4 2017 | Under Construction | 0 | 50 | 10 | 10 |
| Guangxi Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd | Q4 2017 | Under Construction | 25 | 25 | 10 | 15 |
| Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Electricity Co., Ltd. | Q4 2017 | Under Construction | 80 | 38 | 10 | 28 |
| Shaanxi MEIXIN Industry Investment Co., Ltd. | Q4 2017 | Under Construction | 0 | 30 | 10 | 20 |
| Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd. | Q4 2017 | Under Construction | 0 | 80 | 0 | 30 |
| Inner Mongolia Jinlian | Q4 2017 | Postponed construction | 105 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| Liaoning Zhongwang Aluminum Co., Ltd. | Q1 2018 | Under Construction | 40 | 43 | 0 | 43 |
| Shandong Xinfa Group | Q1 2018 | Postponed construction | 220 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Yunnan Zhaotong | Q3 2018 | Under Construction | 0 | 35 | 0 | 20 |
| Chongqing Energy Banner Co., Ltd. | Q3 2018 | Under Construction | 34 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| East Hope Baotou Rare Earth Co., Ltd | Q3 2018 | Under Construction | 88 | 39 | 0 | 39 |
| Inner Mongolia Huayun | Q3 2018 | Under Construction | 112 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| Guangxi Baise Mining Aluminium Co., Ltd | Q3 2018 | Under Construction | 30 | 30 | 0 | 15 |
| Guangxi Suyuan | Q3 2018 | Under Construction | 10 | 30 | 0 | 15 |
| Xingren Denggao Aluminum Co., Ltd. | Q3 2018 | Stagnation | 10 | 10 | - | - |
| Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua | Q2 2019 | Plan on construction | 0 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
| Guangxi Hualei | Q2 2019 | Plan on construction | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Guizhou Huaren | Q2 2019 | Plan on construction | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| China Aluminum Ningxia Energy Group Limited | Q4 2019 | Plan on construction | 0 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Source: Public Data
In 2017, the supply-side reform reached its summit, driving up the price of aluminum. Underpinned by the fundamental analysis, the price is predicated to maintain at a high level and may hit a new record, which lifts up the price of electrolytic aluminum.
Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022
Chart Supply and Demand of China’s Electrolytic Aluminum Industry (10 thousand, ton)
| – | 2015 | 2016 | 2017E | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E |
| Production Volume | 3058 | 3180 | 3650 | 3780 | 3980 | 4180 |
| Net Import Volume | 12 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Apparent Consumption | 3070 | 3188 | 3657 | 3785 | 3985 | 4185 |
| Inventory Gap | 75 | -65 | 100 | -20 | -48 | -50 |
| Consumption Volume | 2995 | 3253 | 3557 | 3805 | 4033 | 4235 |
Source: Public Data
Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022
