Analysis on Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum in China, 2018

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Analysis on Supply and Demand of Electrolytic Aluminum in China, 2018

In 2017, the supply-side reform brought aluminum to the spotlight and also constantly lifted its price. Since 2000, the global supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum has increased significantly, from 24 million tons that year to the current volume of 63 million tons, with an increase of 160%. More than 80% of the increase came from China. Now China's electrolytic aluminum production and sales account for over 50% of the world's total. In 2017, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 14.8 times of that in 2000, with the CAGR up to 17.2%. It is expected that by 2018, supply-side reforms will limit the growth rate of new production capacity.

Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022 

Chart New Production Capacity (10 thousand/year) of Electrolytic Aluminum in China

Enterprise

Start/End of Enlarging Production Capacity

Note

Production Capacity in Operation

New Production Capacity

Capacity Put into Production in 2017

Capacity Put into Production in 2018

Guangxi Suyuan Investment Co., Ltd.

Q1 2017

Put into production

10

10

10

0

Inner Mongolia Jinlian Aluminum Co., Ltd.

Q1 2017

Put into production

100

5

5

0

Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd.

Q1 2017

Put into production

750

50

50

0

Jinghongyuan Induatrial Co., Ltd.

Q2 2017

Put into production

5

5

5

0

Inner Mongolia Huayun

Q2 2017

Put into production

62

78

50

28

Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd.

Q3 2017

Put into production

800

100

100

0

Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Co., Ltd.

Q3 2017

Under Construction

0

10

0

10

East Hope

Q3 2017

Stagnation

160

20

0

0

Xinjiang Jiarun Resource Holding Limited

Q3 2017

Stagnation

60

30

0

0

Guangxi Hualei

Q3 2017

Electricity construction

0

40

20

20

Guizhou Huaren

Q3 2017

Electricity construction

0

50

25

25

China Aluminum Huarun Co., Ltd.

Q4 2017

Under Construction

0

50

25

25

Inner Mongolia Mengtai

Q4 2017

Under Construction

0

50

10

10

Guangxi Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd

Q4 2017

Under Construction

25

25

10

15

Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Electricity Co., Ltd.

Q4 2017

Under Construction

80

38

10

28

Shaanxi MEIXIN Industry Investment Co., Ltd.

Q4 2017

Under Construction

0

30

10

20

Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd.

Q4 2017

Under Construction

0

80

0

30

Inner Mongolia Jinlian

Q4 2017

Postponed construction

105

55

0

0

Liaoning Zhongwang Aluminum Co., Ltd.

Q1 2018

Under Construction

40

43

0

43

Shandong Xinfa Group

Q1 2018

Postponed construction

220

100

0

0

Yunnan Zhaotong

Q3 2018

Under Construction

0

35

0

20

Chongqing Energy Banner Co., Ltd.

Q3 2018

Under Construction

34

17

0

17

East Hope Baotou Rare Earth Co., Ltd

Q3 2018

Under Construction

88

39

0

39

Inner Mongolia Huayun

Q3 2018

Under Construction

112

80

0

0

Guangxi Baise Mining Aluminium Co., Ltd

Q3 2018

Under Construction

30

30

0

15

Guangxi Suyuan

Q3 2018

Under Construction

10

30

0

15

Xingren Denggao Aluminum Co., Ltd.

Q3 2018

Stagnation

10

10

 -

 -

Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua

Q2 2019

Plan on construction

0

80

0

0

Guangxi Hualei

Q2 2019

Plan on construction

0

40

0

0

Guizhou Huaren

Q2 2019

Plan on construction

0

50

0

0

China Aluminum Ningxia Energy Group Limited

Q4 2019

Plan on construction

0

45

0

0

Source: Public Data

In 2017, the supply-side reform reached its summit, driving up the price of aluminum. Underpinned by the fundamental analysis, the price is predicated to maintain at a high level and may hit a new record, which lifts up the price of electrolytic aluminum.

Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022 

Chart Supply and Demand of China's Electrolytic Aluminum Industry (10 thousand, ton)

-

2015

2016

2017E

2018E

2019E

2020E

Production Volume

3058

3180

3650

3780

3980

4180

Net Import Volume

12

8

7

5

5

5

Apparent Consumption

3070

3188

3657

3785

3985

4185

Inventory Gap

75

-65

100

-20

-48

-50

Consumption Volume

2995

3253

3557

3805

4033

4235

Source: Public Data

Related report: Research Report on Electrolytic Aluminum Industry of China, 2018-2022 

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